MSTR BTC Beta

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In plain English

Each dot is a month: bitcoin’s price vs MSTR’s price, both on log scales. The slope of the fitted line is beta: how many percent the stock moved for each percent bitcoin moved, in this sample.

Beta above 1 means the stock has been a louder claim on bitcoin. That is history on a scatter, not the live leverage from debt and preferreds (that live number is “amp” when the collector has it).

Math and metrics

Month-end overlapping Yahoo MSTR and BTC after 2020-07-28. ≥3 months. Amp from Strategy bitcoinKpis (gross BTC / NAV_liq), not the OLS slope.

ln(MSTR) = a + β ln(BTC). β = (nΣxy − ΣxΣy) / (nΣx² − (Σx)²).

OLS line: MSTR = e^a · BTC^β, extended to max(observed BTC, 2× BTC ATH).

Amp line through (BTC_now, MSTR_now): MSTR = MSTR_now · (BTC/BTC_now)^amp.