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2s10s

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In plain English

Normally you get paid more to lend for 10 years than for 2. Subtract those yields: positive is a normal curve, negative is inverted.

Inversion has preceded most US recessions in recent decades. The recession, when it comes, has usually arrived after the curve un-inverts — so this is a warning light, not a dating tool.

Math and metrics

FRED T10Y2Y, daily, percentage points. Published spread, not a live DGS10−DGS2 subtract on our side.

2s10s_t = 10Y − 2Y. inversion iff 2s10s < 0.