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Real Yield

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In plain English

The 10-year TIPS yield is a market real interest rate: what you earn on inflation-protected Treasuries after inflation expectations.

Higher real yields mean you get paid more, after inflation, to sit in Treasuries — a headwind for gold and bitcoin. Lower (or negative) real yields were the 2020–21 backdrop. This Market card is not inverted; the Bitcoin desk’s Real Yield (Inv) card flips the sign so “easier” is up.

Math and metrics

FRED DFII10, daily, percent. 10-year TIPS constant maturity. Same series as the bitcoin-desk inverted card, opposite display.

y_t = DFII10_t. breakeven ≈ DGS10 − DFII10 is not plotted here.