CHAIN PULSE
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ISM vs Workforce

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In plain English

ISM manufacturing is a survey of factories (above 50 ≈ expansion). The workforce line is a blend of temp help, jobless claims (flipped), hours, and payroll growth — a labor-activity pulse.

When ISM and the workforce pulse diverge, one side of the economy is lying. Watch whether factories and labor confirm each other.

Math and metrics

ISM = FRED NAPM. Workforce ≈ equal-weight z of TEMPHELPS, −ICSA, AWHMAN, PAYEMS MoM, aligned to ISM dates.

workforce_t = mean(z_temp, −z_claims, z_hours, z_payrollsMoM)_t.

Dual axis: ISM level vs workforce z. Not a regression residual.