In plain English
ISM manufacturing versus month-over-month payrolls (NFP). Factories vs the jobs print.
Payrolls can stay strong while ISM is in contraction (services/government vs goods). The split is the story.
ISM vs NFP
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Math and metrics
FRED NAPM vs PAYEMS month-over-month percent, aligned join.
left: ISM_t. right: (PAYEMS_t / PAYEMS_{t−1} − 1)·100.