Two power laws this time. A red line is drawn through confirmed cycle highs. A green line is drawn through confirmed cycle lows. Price usually lives in the envelope between them.
The lower pane flattens that envelope: 0 is the green line, 100 is the red line. Low teens means sitting on historically cheap cycle lows. High 90s means tagging historically expensive cycle highs.
Daily USD closes. t = days since 2009-01-03. Cycle highs: ATH prints that later washed ≥55% and are ≥500 days apart. Troughs: min after each peak, only after a 2× bounce. A live wash that has not bounced 2× is scored against the green line, not refit into it.
log P = a + n log t on confirmed peaks → top; same on troughs → bottom. OLS on every close → fair.
osc = 100·(log P − log bottom) / (log top − log bottom). SMA_365 of osc mapped back to $ on the envelope.
Walk-forward “OOS inside envelope” = next-year weekly containment of the envelope frozen at each year-end from 2016.