CHAIN PULSE
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Cycle Scenarios

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In plain English

The green-ish floor is a cautious long-run support: a power law fitted to the cheaper part of history. Above it, three dashed arcs are guesses for how the next boom might stretch — bear (shy), base (typical shrink), bull (stretch, still capped).

They are scenarios, not targets. The lower pane is how far price sits above that floor, with past cycles colored in so you can see whether booms have been getting smaller versus the floor.

Math and metrics

Weekly quantile floor S(t)=A·t^n, τ≈0.10. Arcs are sine-squared in multiple space, anchored on the floor (day-0 = S, not live spot). Educational fan.

OLS slope on weekly log P vs log t; intercept = τ-quantile of residuals; n refit on the lower mass.

base multiple = Bayesian-shrunk log-trend of completed major peak P/S. bear=1+(base−1)·0.22. bull=1+(base−1)·1.60 (capped).

price(t)=S(t)·(1+(m−1)·sin²(phase)). peak $ = m·S(t_peak).