Fair value is the power-law line. The colored corridor is ±1/2/3 standard deviations, with a faint 2-year projection of the same line.
The lower pane is a 0–100 residual oscillator (deep value near 0, bubble near 100). Zone chips show what 1-year returns looked like historically from each zone, after adjusting for the fact that the trend itself is slower now.
No on-chain inputs. Fair = site OLS power law. 1y actual = P_{t+365}/P_t − 1. Expected 1y rebases that return onto today’s slower power-law 1y.
Fair(t)=10^(a+b log10 days). bands = fair · 10^(±kσ), k=1,2,3.
dev% = (P/fair − 1)·100. osc = clamp(0..100, (dev−P5)/(P95−P5)·100).
adj1y = ((1+actual)/(1+PL_then))·(1+PL_now)−1, PL_t=(1+365/days_t)^b − 1.
Zones by raw dev%: Deep ≤−50, Value −50…−20, Slight −20…0, Fair 0…30, Stretched 30…80, Bubble >80. WR = share of adjusted years > 0.