Two slow-and-fast average crosses. The top analog (Pi Cycle Top) has marked several bitcoin blow-offs: a 111-day average catching a doubled 350-day average.
The bottom analog is the reverse idea for lows. It is a later, curve-fit companion — useful as a map of exhaustion, not a promise. The lower pane is just how far the fast bottom line sits from the slow one.
Daily closes. Top MAs are SMA. Bottom fast line is EMA (TradingView seed: SMA of first 150, then k=2/151). 150·π ≈ 471.
Top: short=SMA_111, long=2·SMA_350. Cross up: short_{t−1}≤long_{t−1} and short_t>long_t.
Bottom: Slow=0.745·SMA_471. Cross down: EMA150_{t−1}≥Slow_{t−1} and EMA150_t<Slow_t.
oscillator = EMA150 / Slow − 1.
0.745 was curve-fit (Doncic 2021). 2022 printed at the June/July local low, not the November FTX low. COVID 2020 was too fast to fire.