In plain English
Top: bitcoin’s price and the realized cost-basis line (what the average coin last moved at). Bottom: the MVRV multiple with a growing mean and standard-deviation bands.
Green under 1 means the market is below cost basis. Red above the +1.5σ band means the multiple is stretched versus its own expanding history.
Math and metrics
Daily spot + realized from Coin Metrics (mvrv clipped to (0,12), from 2012-01-01). Expanding-window mean ± σ on the MVRV series itself.
MVRV_t = spot_t / realizedPrice_t. μ_t, σ_t from expanding history of MVRV.
Green fill MVRV<1. Red fill MVRV > μ+1.5σ. Not the z-score card (that standardizes the ratio over full history).