In plain English
Compare today’s MVRV to its own average over the last year. Above zero, valuation is hotter than the last year’s typical. Below zero, cooler.
Long winters (320+ days below zero) then a flip back above have marked the last three cycle turns. Green on price is the two years after that flip, with a median path of prior flips sketched forward. Small sample: three modern flips.
Math and metrics
Coin Metrics MVRV step-held onto daily spot. Qualifying bear = ≥320 consecutive days osc<0 (source chart used 329). Flip = first osc≥0 after that run, confirmed by three consecutive green days.
osc_t = MVRV_t / SMA(MVRV, 365)_t − 1.
Green window = flip + 24 months. Orange path = median 3/6/9/12/18/24-month return of completed flips, applied from the latest flip (or last spot if still underwater).