This is not a price chart. Each dot is a bounce that happened while bitcoin was still more than 30% below its all-time high, but had jumped 30–50% off a recent low.
Left to right is how late in the drawdown that bounce was. Up is how price did over the next six months. Green = the bounce’s low held. Red = that low was broken. The diamond is today — outcome still unknown.
Daily USD closes. Sampling after Will Clemente’s Sep 2026 study. n is small (6–13 per phase): direction over decimals.
ATH_t = max close ≤ t. Keep close_t/ATH_t ≤ 0.70 and bounce=close_t/min(close in [t−119,t]) ∈ [1.30, 1.50].
After a sample, skip 90 days. Forward = close_{t+180}/close_t. Held iff no close in (t, t+180] < sample’s 120d low.
Bands: 0–250, 250–760, 760–1150 days. Live diamond uses bounce (not a 180-day multiple) so the open outcome is not pretended known.