Halving Overlay

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In plain English

Every four years bitcoin’s new-coin faucet is cut in half. This chart lines those eras up on the same clock, starting each at its own halving day.

You are looking at analog paths, not a forecast. The live cycle is the bold one. Older cycles are ghosts behind it. They will not match dollar-for-dollar because the base got larger.

Math and metrics

Prior epoch analogs indexed from each halving (2012-11-28, 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11, 2024-04-20). X is days since that event. Y is log USD or a rebased multiple as plotted.

For epoch e: x = t − t_halving_e, y = close(t) (or close(t)/close(t_halving) on the performance sibling).