In plain English
A what-if ladder: if bitcoin were at $X tomorrow and the stack, shares, and debt stayed put, what would the stock be worth at today’s multiple, at 1× net coins, at 1× gross coins, and at the historical average premium?
The gold dashed vertical is live bitcoin. The headline line at live BTC should sit near the actual stock. This is accounting, not the beta scatter.
Math and metrics
Current holdings, shares, debt, preferred from the MSTR snapshot. Hist avg = mean of daily gross mNAV since the strategy window. Strategy’s published mNAV is net — not that average.
grossNav(b) = holdings·b / shares. netNav(b) = max(0, (holdings·b − debt − pref)/shares).
now = k_now·netNav(b); 1.0× net = netNav(b); 1.0× gross = grossNav(b); hist = k_hist·grossNav(b).