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UNRATE

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In plain English

U-3 unemployment: people without a job who are actively looking, as a percent of the labor force. It is a lagging thermometer — it often bottoms after a slowdown has already started.

Low 3s is a tight US labor market by history. 6%+ is slack. Watch the direction over six months more than one print. It misses discouraged workers (that would be U-6).

Math and metrics

FRED UNRATE, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted. No Sahm rule on this plate.

y_t = UNRATE_t.