Stock-to-Flow

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In plain English

Stock-to-flow is a scarcity story: how many years of new coins it would take to rebuild the existing pile. After each halving, new coins slow down, so the ratio jumps.

PlanB’s model turns that ratio into a model price. This chart overlays that model on spot. Treat it as a famous educational fit, not as a present-value of cash flows — bitcoin has no yield.

Math and metrics

PlanB-style S2F: stock / annualized issuance. Model price from log-log OLS of price on S2F. Genesis pin 1_231_006_505, a=−1.84, b=3.36 as used on this plate.

SF_t = circulating_t / (issuancePerYear_t). model = exp(a + b · ln(SF)).

Halvings change subsidy (50 → 25 → 12.5 → 6.25 → 3.125). This is not a cash-flow model and not the site power law.