Fit a straight line to log(price) versus bitcoin’s age in days (not log-age — that would be the power law). Then draw corridors at 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations.
Price hugging the lower bands is statistically cheap versus this linear-in-time log trend. The dashed forward line is the same fit extended, not a promise.
OLS: log10(P) on calendar days since genesis (linear time, not log time). Residual σ from the fit. Forward 4 years at 30-day steps. This is not the site power law (that is log-log).
log10(P) = a + b·days. band_k = 10^(pred ± kσ), k=1,2,3.
z = (log10(P) − pred) / σ.
Zones on z: <−1.5σ deep, −1.5 to −0.5 cheap, −0.5 to +0.5 fair, +0.5 to +1.5 rich, >+1.5 bubble.