CHAIN PULSE
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Global Liquidity Fair Value

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In plain English

Regress bitcoin’s price on global M2 (a broad pile of money). The fitted line is “the bitcoin price that historically went with this much money.” Bands are typical misses.

The lower pane is a z-score of that miss: negative means cheap versus the money stock, positive means stretched. Window from the 2020 liquidity era.

Math and metrics

btcLiq.series points with usd>0 and m2t>0. OLS: ln(BTC) on M2 level. Residual σ. Window 2020-03-01.

ln P = a + b·M2. fair = exp(a + b·M2). z = (ln P − ln fair) / σ.

Bands = fair · exp(±σ). Not US net liquidity and not the proprietary Global Liq YoY pulse.